Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 2.311908 2.711237 3.154491 3.682362 4.293267 4.977417 5.801086
2025-11-09 1.566629 2.063004 2.675712 3.484912 4.522624 5.805589 7.508774
2025-11-16 1.163653 1.689392 2.398611 3.419078 4.842552 6.749460 9.487893
2025-11-23 0.908944 1.435226 2.201235 3.386597 5.161369 7.703468 11.599601
2025-11-30 0.775271 1.316522 2.157632 3.542831 5.745319 9.083244 14.485985
2025-12-07 0.647323 1.174901 2.045140 3.561421 6.106269 10.162587 17.054478
2025-12-14 0.543773 1.049644 1.931198 3.548605 6.400185 11.157860 19.602729
2025-12-21 0.465112 0.950767 1.841300 3.554892 6.715623 12.213567 22.368032
2025-12-28 0.437680 0.941229 1.906955 3.844545 7.562177 14.267397 27.085192
2026-01-04 0.390084 0.882064 1.868310 3.930002 8.041259 15.722702 30.905286
2026-01-11 0.352128 0.835064 1.844538 4.037924 8.572727 17.329144 35.182553
2026-01-18 0.311308 0.773646 1.780505 4.052310 8.917164 18.615259 38.990702
2026-01-25 0.263650 0.688533 1.654754 3.923102 8.962577 19.348621 41.860883
2026-02-01 0.218629 0.600420 1.507464 3.723621 8.832034 19.715615 44.050040
2026-02-08 0.189173 0.544744 1.424897 3.657155 8.982363 20.682729 47.605249
2026-02-15 0.165950 0.500246 1.361072 3.623841 9.201644 21.821407 51.661031
2026-02-22 0.155722 0.489050 1.378178 3.790915 9.913637 24.129496 58.559308
2026-03-01 0.139949 0.458550 1.339859 3.810917 10.271000 25.671937 63.894905
2026-03-08 0.124810 0.426539 1.291762 3.797316 10.542040 27.043693 68.989242
2026-03-15 0.112308 0.399833 1.253561 3.804043 10.865595 28.577001 74.638764
2026-03-22 0.111066 0.409125 1.320126 4.112876 12.027007 32.287319 85.977815
2026-03-29 0.102928 0.393667 1.311028 4.203978 12.612977 34.625991 94.166653
2026-04-05 0.096197 0.381560 1.310059 4.319017 13.281168 37.249067 103.357093